More Fun with Math: NY Auto Theft Prevention

Tom at Undercaffeinated complains the NY state government is pissing away his money. Though I would happily agree, I thought I'd be fun to play Devil's Advocate on the subject.

According to this site, in 2000, there were about 57,160 car thefts in New York State per year: (285.8/100,000 vehicle thefts per citizen) x (approx. 20,000,000 people).

According to this article, the average value of a stolen car at the turn of the millennium was $6,701.00.

Thus the total value of all car thefts in New York per year was $383,029,160.00.

New York had a drop in auto theft 3.5% greater than the national average. [38.5% - 35% = 3.5%]

The total value of money saved due to the additional 3.5% drop would be $18,567,338.53 per year: $383,029,160.00 x 138.5% from before x 3.5%.

New York spent $6.2 Million per year on auto theft prevention between 1997 and 2001: $31 Million / 5 years.

Thus New York arguably profited $12.3 Million per year from the program, and more than doubled their investment.

Of course, (1) the statistics are skewed due to limited data, (2) this is not an objective measurement of how effective the program actually was, and (3) not all auto thefts equal a total loss of the automobile's value (though could possibly exceed it, through loss man-hours and cost of retrieving it). Even then, NY might have broken even on the venture.

Crime prevention spending shouldn't be viewed with the same categorical skepticism as welfare, social-spending, do-gooder pork projects. Government spends it money best by preventing theft, and spends it the worst by facilitating it.